[e-drug] Treatment guidelines and pooled procurement (3)

["AbdurRafiu A. Idris" <idrisra@yahoo.com>]

E-DRUG: Treatment guidelines and pooled procurement (3)
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Dear E-Druggers,

I want to butress Bakari's points on consumption forecast versus procurement. Experience has shown that many variables interact to make consumption forecasts invalid after some time. Examples include, but not limited to, change in treatment guidelines, differences in population forecasts (which is a key input in consumption forecast) and the actual and deviation from forecasted regimens. The last example is particularly critical for ARVs. The presence of these factors mean that forecasts need to be updated regularly to incorporate actual occurences in reviewed forecasts.

With these possibilities around, the need to embark on supply planning after consumption forecast is very critical to maintaining the supply chain of any commodity and avoiding overstock or stockouts. This is particularly important for ARVs with very short shelf lives and planning their supplies (shipments) in a piecemeal fashion will minimize incidences of product expirations and correct errors that may occur in the process of data collection. Supply planning takes stock of commodities on hand and on order and the actual quantities consumed into consideration and updates of these monthly or quarterly as convenient will keep a tab on the pipeline stocks of the commodities with a view to adjusting the supply plans when necessary. This however requires real hard work and time dedicated to gathering and verifying logistics data to inform these decisions. My experience in this area informs me that the effort is very well worth it.

Combining all these with pooled procurement will be a dream come true for developing nations. The system is already yielding great dividends in PEPFAR focus countries most of which are in Africa.
Pharm. Idris, Rafiu Adeyemi
ART Commodity Tracking System Advisor,
Supply Chain Management Systems,
Phone: +264-61-305390/7
Namibia
ridris@na.pfscm.org